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金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (31)字体[ ] 颜色[ 绿 ]
分类:随笔小记  创建于:2009-09-16 被查看:9857次 [收藏:日记|作者] [评论]
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金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (I), (II) (III)(IV)(V) (VI) (VII) (VIII) (IX)(X) <= click the link for details
金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (XI), (XII),  (XIII),  (XIV), (15)(16)(17),  (18),  (19)(20) <= click the link for details

金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (21),(22),(23),(24),(25), (26), (27), (28), (29), (30) <= click the link for details

金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (31) 

金融危机周年祭 昔日华尔街大佬今何在?

 金融海啸爆发一周年之际。一年前,华尔街历史最悠久、规模第四大的银行雷曼兄弟走向破产绝路,触发席卷全球的金融危机。一年后,那些在危机中扮演重要角色的人物,以及那些在华尔街呼风唤雨的人,如今何去何从?

  美国前财长保尔森推出美国历来最大的救市方案“问题资产拯救计划”(TARP),成功稳住全球金融体系,但许多评论员不但斥责他拒绝救雷曼是触发金融海啸的导火线,也质疑他在决定哪些金融机构才是TARP受惠方时有否保持独立。


※ 来源: http://www.JiaoYou8.com ※
 
unavail
45岁,加州
评论于:2009-09-21 21:22:47  [评论]
美国经济衰退已结束 正步入复苏轨道

北京9月22日电(评论员 谭小芬)美国经济自2007年12月开始衰退以来,房价持续大幅下跌,止赎率不断攀升,投资者对抵押物价值和金融机构潜在损失的担心与日俱增。2008年9月后,金融系统的风险大幅提升。尽管美联储采取了救助“两房”的行动,但“两房”的情况仍进一步恶化。很快,其他一些大型金融机构也面临巨大压力。当时,雷曼兄弟公司的抵押品数量远低于其希望从美联储获得贷款所需的相关要求,美联储不能为其提供无抵押的贷款,雷曼兄弟公司倒闭,金融危机迅速恶化,恐慌情绪很快从金融机构向货币市场和资本市场蔓延。银行间同业市场和商业票据市场等短期融资市场的状况急剧恶化,股价大幅下跌,风险利差持续扩大。之后,美林被美洲银行收购,摩根斯坦利和高盛经美联储批准成为银行控股公司。

  面对突然升级的危机,美联储和财政部迅速作出反应。美联储创新了一些流动性工具,来稳定商业票据市场和防止资金从货币市场共同基金大量流出。2008年10月3日,在财政部提议和美联储强烈支持下,国会批准了问题资产救助计划(TARP),该计划提供7000亿美元来维持美国金融体系的稳定。尽管此后危机的强度有所缓和,系统性崩溃的风险也在减小,金融机构整体压力有所下降,但金融市场仍面临着压力。政府为防止具有系统影响力的金融机构无序倒闭,在2008年11月和2009年1月分别宣布了对花旗银行和美洲银行的援助计划。

  美国政府的措施防止了形势进一步恶化,但金融市场的压力已对实体经济产生了破坏性影响。整个经济中,除了住房市场和消费支出下挫外,企业投资、出口和进口均大幅下滑。按年率计算的美国实际GDP在2008年第四季度和2009年第一季度分别急剧下降5.4%和6.4%,比1981-1982年经济衰退时期还要严重。2009年第二季度下滑速度有所放缓,为-1.0%。其中,私人消费降幅的负作用在二季度有所加剧,固定投资(包括住宅投资和非住宅投资,非住宅投资又分为建筑投资和设备及软件投资)和去库存对GDP的负面影响都较一季度显着缩小,而净出口和政府财政刺激对二季度经济增长起到提振作用。近期公布的大部分数据表明,美国金融市场正逐步企稳,住房价格指标开始回升,美国经济已经触底。在存货投资、财政刺激、住房建造和金融状况改善的推动下,2009年下半年美国经济正步入复苏的轨道。

  一、消费支出下滑放缓,消费低迷现象仍将持续

  面对家庭财富的下降、劳动力市场的疲软和紧缩的信贷环境,美国消费开支增长出现明显下滑。2008年第三季度到2009年第二季度消费支出增速分别为-3.5%、-3.1%、0.6%和-1.0%,对GDP的贡献度分别为-2.49%、-2.15%、0.44%和-0.69%。不过,在已经结束的“旧车换现金”计划的提振下,8月份零售额增长2.7%,主要归因于汽车和汽油销售上升。但其他商品零售额也增长0.6%,这是汽车及汽油以外商品的零售额6个月来第二次实现增长。8月份汽车及零部件零售额增长10.6%,创下2001年10月份增长25.6%以来的最高水平。

  美国消费者可能正从跌跌不休的资产价格以及不断攀升的失业率中走出,消费支出开始见底。一是减税政策提高了家庭可支配收入,政府支出直接增加了就业岗位,而且刺激经济的资金大部分尚未使用,2009年下半年有望贡献于经济增长;二是随着家庭和企业替换或更新设备,对房屋以及汽车、商用设备等耐用品的需求将开始复苏;三是首次申请失业救济金人数下降,8月份削减的岗位数要少于原先预期的23.3万个,为2008年8月以来最小降幅;四是标准普尔500指数从3月初至6月底反弹约36%,股市反弹和房价企稳使消费者信心开始从低位回升。

  然而,未来消费开支仍将受制于以下几个因素。

  第一,就业形势将会影响居民收入。自美国经济2007年12月开始进入衰退以来,美国就业岗位已总计减少740万个。8月份美国非农业部门就业岗位减少21.6万个,失业率已经升至26年来最高点9.7%,预计最终将达到10%左右。失业率峰值可能出现在2010年上半年,在此之前就业人数仍将持续下滑,失业率居高不下会对消费支出产生严重影响。

  第二,美国消费者的财务状况仍然难以站稳脚跟,信用卡贷款数据没有表现出情况正在明显好转的迹象。2009年8月底信用卡坏账率为10.27%,去年同期这一数据位5.9%;信用卡违约率为5.42%,去年同期这一数据为4.2%。

  第三,家庭获取信贷渠道的匮乏和他们减少债务的意愿,将会遏制消费者支出。消费者可能更多的将收入用于偿还贷款,消费信贷继续保持连续的下滑,这与储蓄率回升共同主导了家庭部门的去杠杆进程,在就业和信贷均未产生趋势性变化之前,美国的消费复苏都将比较弱。

  第四,旧车换现金计划刺激了消费支出的增长,一些曾经犹豫购买汽车的消费者在这一计划的刺激下参与了购买,这将消耗一定的潜在消费者。在诸多制约因素下,消费支出的增长将不够强劲。

  二、住宅投资下滑开始放缓,库存投资有望回升,企业投资依然不容乐观

  美国私人投资总额自2006年第二季度以来开始后出现负增长,2007和2008年投资总额增长分别为-3.8%和-7.3%,2009年第一、二季度分别下滑50.5%和24.4%。其中,住宅投资从2006年第一季度开始已连续14个季度下滑,累计下降50%,拖累GDP增长近3个百分点;建筑投资在2007年和2008年分别增长14.9%和10.3%,从2008年第三季度开始连续四个季度下滑,分别下降0.1%、7.2%、43.6%、15.1%;设备和投资在2007年增长2.6%,2008年转变为下降2.6%,从2008年第二季度开始连续五个季度下滑,分别下降0.5%、5.0%、9.4%、25.9%、36.4%和8.4%。

  美国私人投资有所改善,但是未来仍面临挑战。第一,制造业开始显露复苏迹象,企业投资已呈现企稳改善迹象。ISM制造业指数自2008年1月以来在8月份首次超过50,表明美国制造业正走出衰退、出现正增长。作为企业投资的领先指标,制造业新订单指数在5月份突破50之后持续加速上升,从而为企业投资未来继续回升提供了动力。8月份美国工业产值月环比上升0.8%,同比下10.7%,产能利用率上升至69.6%,但较其1972年至2008年期间的平均值低11.3%。第二,过去一直在快速萎缩的库存开始得到改善,美国制造业库存已连续下降40个月之久,18个行业中有11个行业表示库存“过低”,随着经济见底和销售回暖,库存开始回升,短期内提振制造业的增长。预计2009年下半年经济扩张的一个最大动力是,生产商、批发商和零售商减缓清理库存的步伐。不过,库存投资的提振作用通常是短暂的。第三,金融系统的流动性状况已经恢复到了雷曼倒闭前的水平,但是还没回到2007年次贷危机前的状态。

  三、净出口继续成为美国经济增长的动力,但其作用会逐渐减弱

  净出口成为美国经济中难得的亮点。从2008年第三季度到2009年第二季度,商品和服务出口持续负增长,增长率分别为-3.6%、-19.5%、-29.9%和-5.0%;但商品和服务进口也大幅下降,分别为-2.2%、-16.7%、-36.4%、-15.1%。相应的,2008年净出口为GDP增长贡献1.2个百分点,2009年第一、二季度分别贡献2.64和1.60个百分点,其中出口贡献度从一季度的-3.95%改善为-0.54%,进口贡献从一季度的6.58%下降到2.14%。相应的,第二季度美国经常帐赤字由一季度的1045亿美元缩减至二季度的988亿美元,创下自2001 年以来的最低,经常账户赤字占GDP比例从一季度的2.9%下降到二季度得2.8%,为1991年第一季度以来最低水平。

  过去一年里,美国进出口贸易双双下滑,贸易逆差得到改善,主要是受到美国最终需求急剧下滑带动进口下降幅度超过出口。随着美国的进口需求由于经济摆脱衰退而出现回升,未来贸易赤字也许会扩大,净出口能否继续充当美国经济增长的动力值得怀疑。

  2009年下半年,受避险情绪下降、通胀预期上升和国债融资风险增加等多种因素的影响,美元呈贬值态势。第一,去年10月份雷曼兄弟倒闭后金融市场高度恐慌,避险情绪升温,大量资金流入美国,导致美元出现了持续半年左右的强劲反弹。2009年下半年随着经济逐渐走出谷底和金融市场的企稳,前期金融危机中美元作为避险工具的需求大大减弱,投资者风险偏好逐步回升,资金离开美元重归国际流动追逐高收益的需求有所增强。第二,在美联储量化宽松货币政策背景下,美元3 个月期Libor利率已经由去年10 月份时的4.8%,一路下滑至如今的0.29%。8月底甚至出现了低于同期日元拆借利率的现象,更加速推动了上述进程。第三,庞大财政赤字不但无法收缩而且还有可能继续增长,由此对于美元以及美国债券的信心受到进一步的冲击。

  不过,美元在中期内仍有走强的趋势。一是美国经济率先于其他主要经济体走出衰退;二是美联储收紧数量型货币政策,特别是加息的启动可能早于其他发达经济体;三是美国经常账户逆差持续改善有助于美元走强;四是金融危机使美元的储备货币地位受到了冲击,但尚未受到实质性的冲击;五是美国的财政赤字虽然居高不下,但是仍然好于欧洲和日本。

  四、财政刺激在经济复苏中功不可没,但是财政状况面临巨大压力

  美国国会预算办公室(CBO)的数据显示,联邦政府2008年财政赤字目标为1.58万亿美元,这是第二次世界大战以来美国最高的单个年度预算赤字。2010-2019年10年累计预算赤字将达到7.137万亿美元。到2010年年底,美国公共债务占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例将超过61%,到2019年年底,该比例将升至68%。截至8月份的2008-2009财政年度前11个月,美国联邦财政赤字创历史新高,达到1.38万亿美元。

  近期经济数据的好转与各国政府在危机爆发后实施的大规模刺激计划联系紧密,如果没有政府持续的财政支出支持,美国经济很难走上复苏道路。然而与大规模经济刺激计划相伴的是挥之不去的赤字问题。从历史上看,除受二战影响的1942-1946年,美国在20世纪出现的最大财政赤字也不过占到GDP的6%,而2009年美国的赤字占比将高达11%。

  财政赤字的居高不下将给经济复苏带来风险,无论当局撤出还是不撤出这些政策,都可能对经济带来负面冲击。一方面,如果政府马上认真对待高额财政赤字,提高税收,削减支出,消除过剩的流动性,他们会破坏复苏,将经济拖回到衰退和通缩的状态。另一方面,如果政策制定者维持庞大的预算赤字,可能引发海外投资者对于美元和美国国债的担忧,从而降低对美国国债的需求甚至促使资金大量流出美国,从而提升美国长期政府债券利率,最终导致滞胀局面。规模巨大的财政赤字带来沈重的债务负担,可能导致美元贬值预期上升和大宗商品价格上扬,不利于经济复苏进程。不断攀升的财政赤字引发了各界担忧,美国政府表示一旦经济下滑情况结束,金融系统趋于稳定,政府将致力于控制赤字,但是美国政府迄今仍没有拿出应对未来赤字的有效计划。

  五、短期内通货膨胀受到抑制,不会对经济复苏构成掣肘

  8月份CPI同比降幅触底反弹、环比升幅加大,主要反映能源价格上涨的推动。CPI环比上涨0.4%,而同比下降1.4%。核心CPI涨幅维持低位,8月份环比上升0.1%,同比上升1.5%,仍未超过政策制定者视为符合物价稳定的通货膨胀水平2%。前瞻性看,CPI的翘尾因素已开始出现,并将在12月份充分释放,预计通胀年率在09年底将转为正。整体和核心CPI指标的分化可能还会持续,这在一定程度上受能源市场走势影响。另外,随着时间的推移,从经济形势好转中受益的制造业需求也会增加,进而推动大宗商品价格上涨,并导致整体CPI走高。在生产者物价指数方面,8月PPI同比下降4.3%,环比上升1.7%,扣除食品和能源的PPI指数同比上升2.3%,主要贡献因素是能源成本月环比上升8%,特别是汽油价格月环比上升23%。

  从短期来看,通货膨胀的上行风险受到四大因素的制约:

  一是经济疲软和工资下行压力导致通胀率保持在低位。美国的失业率还在上升,而且就业市场回暖的步伐将是缓慢的,劳动力成本抑制了短期内通胀上行的风险。虽然制造业正在复苏,但处于极低位置的产能利用率使得企业仍很难获得定价能力。虽然经济衰退已经结束,但复苏的步伐是温和的,美国经济不太可能迅速恢复到危机前的增长水平,难以出现物价水平的大幅上涨。

  二是在能源供应充足和真实需求不稳的背景下,油价难以保持持续上升的态势。根据剑桥能源(CERA)预测,目前OPEC 的闲置产能已是全球需求量的8%左右,现有的生产能力基本可以保证一年内充足的供应。而且,政府控制商品价格的努力愈发明显,例如美国政府已开始采取一些监管措施以抑制石油期货市场的过度炒作从而推高油价。

  三是美元走软有利于进一步缩减贸易逆差,最终还将支持美元走强。七国集团已开始担忧本国货币兑美元的升值走势会拖累本国经济复苏前景。

  四是货币存量与经济之间的关系已经打破,虽然信贷可获得性已经增加,但信贷供应依然紧张,而且这种状况还会持续,核心物价指数在较长一段时间都将持稳。如果2010年美联储比较早的加息,其考虑的核心因素应该不是通胀风险,而更多的是纠正前期零利率水平的潜在风险,即利率水平正常化。

 
unavail
45岁,加州
评论于:2009-09-21 21:22:05  [评论]
Recession's impact: US census data show longer commutes, delayed marriage, fewer immigrants


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The recession is profoundly disrupting American life: More people are delaying marriage and home-buying, turning to carpools yet stuck in ever-worse traffic, staying put rather than moving to a new city.

A broad array of U.S. census data, for release on Tuesday, also shows a dip in the foreign-born population last year, to under 38 million after it reached an all-time high in 2007. This was due to declines in low-skilled workers from Mexico searching for jobs in the states of Arizona, Florida and California.

Health coverage varied widely by region, based partly on levels of unemployment. Massachusetts, with its universal coverage law, had fewer than one in 20 uninsured residents -- the lowest in the nation. Texas had the highest share, at one in four, largely because of illegal Hispanic immigrants excluded from government-sponsored and employer-provided plans.

Demographers said the latest figures were striking confirmation of the social impact of the economic decline as it hit home in 2008. Findings come from the annual American Community Survey, a sweeping look at life built on information from 3 million households.

Preliminary data earlier this year found that many Americans were not moving, staying put in big cities rather than migrating to Sunbelt states because of frozen lines of credit. Mobility is at a 60-year low, upending population trends ahead of the 2010 census that will be used to apportion House seats.

"The recession has affected everybody in one way or another as families use lots of different strategies to cope with a new economic reality," said Mark Mather, associate vice president of the nonprofit Population Reference Bureau. "Job loss -- or the potential for job loss -- also leads to feelings of economic insecurity and can create social tension."

"It's just the tip of the iceberg," he said, noting that unemployment is still rising.

The percentage of people who drove alone to work dropped last year to 75.5 percent, the lowest in a decade, as commuters grew weary of paying close to $4 a gallon for gasoline and opted to carpool or take public transportation.

Twenty-two states had declines in solo drivers compared with the year before, with the rest statistically unchanged. The decreases were particularly evident in states with higher traffic congestion, such as Maryland, Texas and Washington.

Average commute times edged up to 25.5 minutes, erasing years of decreases to stand at the level of 2000, as people had to leave home earlier in the morning to pick up friends for their ride to work or to catch a bus or subway train.

Nationwide, more than one in eight workers, or 17.5 million, were out the door by 6 a.m.

Marital bliss also suffered. Nearly one in three Americans 15 and over, or 31.2 percent, reported they had never been married, the highest level in a decade. The share had previously hovered for years around 27 percent, before beginning to climb during the housing downturn in 2006.

The never-married included three-quarters of men in their 20s and two-thirds of women in that age range. Sociologists say younger people are taking longer to reach economic independence and consider marriage, because they are struggling to find work or focusing on an advanced education.

The dip in foreign-born residents comes as the government considers immigration changes, including stepped-up border enforcement and a path toward U.S. citizenship. At nearly 38 million, immigrants made up 12.5 percent of the population in 2008; an estimated 11.9 million are here illegally.

In three large metro area, Miami, San Jose, California, and Los Angeles, more than one-third of all residents are foreign-born.

Roughly half the states showed declines in the number of immigrants from 2007 to 2008. Major metro areas also posted decreases, including Los Angeles, Phoenix, Detroit and Tampa, Florida. An influx of workers from India, who came looking for specialized jobs in telecommunications, manufacturing, computers and software, partially offset the national immigration decrease.

About one in five U.S. residents spoke a language other than English at home, mostly clustered in California, New Mexico and Texas.

Associated Press writers Frank Bass in East Dover, Vermont, Calvin Woodward in Washington and Mike Schneider in Orlando contributed to this report.

 
unavail
45岁,加州
评论于:2009-09-21 21:20:54  [评论]
SEC going to trial against BofA over Merrill bonuses; bank also exits loss guarantee deal


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission said Monday it will go to trial against Bank of America Corp. over billions of dollars in bonuses paid at Merrill Lynch, which the bank acquired in a hastily arranged deal a year ago at the height of the financial crisis.

The SEC said it will "vigorously pursue" its case against Bank of America, opening the possibility that bank executives could also face charges. The bank said it will "vigorously defend" itself.

Monday's announcement by the SEC came after a federal judge last week threw out a $33 million proposed settlement of the case.

The agency has accused BofA of failing to disclose to shareholders that it had authorized Merrill to pay up to $5.8 billion in bonuses to its employees in 2008 even though the investment bank lost $27.6 billion that year.

Separately Monday, Bank of America reached an agreement with the government to exit an arrangement under which public funds might have been used to shoulder losses on risky assets from the Merrill Lynch takeover.

BofA agreed to pay $425 million to government agencies, including the Treasury Department, to get out of the deal, part of a broader effort by the bank to unwind various forms of government support. Charlotte, North Carolina-based BofA has been one of the largest benefactors of the government's financial rescue program, receiving a total of $45 billion from the taxpayer-financed $700 billion financial bailout program.

The loss-guarantee arrangement covered $118 billion in risky assets Bank of America acquired in the Merrill Lynch deal. It was never used, but the government has argued that the bank benefited from the promise of protection.

The SEC has been weighing its options in its case involving disclosure of the Merrill bonuses since U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff called the proposed settlement a breach of "justice and morality," rebuked the agency for not pursuing charges against individual Bank of America executives, and ordered a trial. The SEC could have also tried try to renegotiate the accord with Bank of America.

Both the SEC and BofA have defended the earlier settlement proposal as appropriate. However Rakoff had questioned why individual executives at Bank of America weren't charged, and said the settlement unfairly penalized shareholders.

The SEC said in a statement Monday it could seek to bring additional charges if supported by the record of evidence that develops in the trial, meaning that it could seek to charge individual executives.

Bank of America spokesman Scott Silvestri said its position "continues to be that the (disclosure document) met all legal requirements."

"We intend to vigorously defend ourselves in court," Silvestri said in a statement.

BofA had agreed to pay the $33 million settlement without admitting or denying wrongdoing. The bank has said it didn't violate disclosure rules but wanted to avoid litigation with the SEC at a time of market uncertainty.

Rakoff, in his ruling, found that the settlement "suggests a rather cynical relationship between the parties."

"The SEC gets to claim that it is exposing wrongdoing on the part of the Bank of America in a high-profile merger, the bank's management gets to claim that they have been coerced into an onerous settlement by overzealous regulators. And all this is done at the expense, not only of the shareholders, but also of the truth," he wrote.

The SEC lawsuit comes as Bank of America faces pressure from other fronts. The New York Attorney General's office is doing its own investigation into the Merrill Lynch deal and has been drafting what are likely to be civil fraud charges against top bank executives in the coming weeks.

Also, the bank missed a noon deadline Monday to provide additional information about the Merrill Lynch deal to a congressional committee.

Democratic Rep. Edolphus Towns and chairman of House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, told the bank in a letter Friday that it was hiding behind attorney-client privilege, which Congress can refuse to recognize during its investigations. Silvestri declined to comment on whether or not the bank turned over documents by the Monday deadline but said a senior bank executive would meet with Towns on Tuesday to discuss the matter.

BofA also said Monday it had appointed Charles "Chad" Holliday Jr., who is also the board chairman E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co., to its board of directors. Seven directors have resigned from Bank of America's board since shareholders replaced the bank's chairman in April.

AP Economics Writer Jeannine Aversa in Washington and AP Business Writer Stephen Bernard in New York contributed to this story.

 
unavail
45岁,加州
评论于:2009-09-21 21:19:34  [评论]
华尔街日报:美国百姓承担楼市风险 银行赚大钱

现在美国3家大银行发放的住房抵押贷款占此类贷款总量的一半以上。这是个惊人的变化,但这对于楼市来说是好事吗?长远来看,这种状况对于富国银行、美国银行和摩根大通的利润能起到多大的提振作用呢......

  2009 年09月21日消息,目前,楼市仍需政府支持。美国财政部为大约85%的新增抵押贷款提供担保,同时,美联储购买了80%的由这些抵押贷款打包而成的证券。乐观的情形是,这类支持规模虽然很大,但等到市场恢复信心时就会收缩。然而,悲观的结果就是:这种紧急救助令纳税人承担了大多数抵押贷款的违约风险,而发放抵押贷款和相关服务所产生的很大一部分服务费被少数几家大银行拿走了。

  如今的情形正是这样。虽然银行发放了大量抵押贷款,但这些贷款几乎全都有房利美和房地美的担保。事实上,今年上半年,摩根大通、美国银行和富国银行资产负债表上的单一家庭抵押贷款下降了3.5%。本轮危机之前,这些银行向房利美和房地美出售大量贷款,但也坚持推出大额房贷一类的产品。这类大额贷款现在急剧萎缩。

  就在账面上的抵押贷款减少之时,这些银行的抵押贷款手续费收入仍实现大幅增长。今年上半年,上述3家银行仅这项收入总计就达140亿美元,较上年同期的41亿美元增长240%。

  当然,这一增幅部分来自于提高抵押贷款服务相关资产的价格,但更多的却是来自于大规模并购以后市场份额的增加,如美国银行收购了Countrywide。据行业出版物InsideMortgageFinance提供的数据显示,上述3家银行今年上半年发放的抵押贷款占总额的52%,比它们2005年的市场份额高出一倍。服务业方面,3家银行的份额为49%,远远超出2005年的22%。

  美国监管机构认可了导致这种局面的并购活动。他们认为,这类并购是为了拯救深受危机冲击的疲弱银行。事实上,即使没有这样的紧急态势,监管机构也从未将抵押贷款份额作为关注重点。这表明,监管机构并不担心贷款份额集中程度增加的情况。或许情况恰恰相反,他们可能更乐于让大多数抵押贷款通过他们有意严加监管的 3家银行发放。

  3家银行能从中得到好处吗?如果政府支持减弱,楼市出现衰退,庞大的抵押贷款市场份额可能成为负担。不过,能够获得巨额的抵押贷款手续费,同时通过将贷款出售给政府来避免信贷和利率风险,这可能是不错的盈利策略。

  金融改革 南辕北辙

  同时,通过让自己成为抵押贷款市场运行中不可缺少的因素,这些银行即使陷入困境也很可能得到救助。曼哈顿研究院的吉里纳斯说,一些银行的抵押贷款市场份额的激增可能令他们对政府的重要性大大增加,因此政府任由它们崩溃的可能性微乎其微。

  由此可见,美国政府的举措并非试图变革,而像是强化原有的体系,向周期性经历高杠杆投机热潮的资产提供巨额补贴。

  虽然遭遇危机,但符合政府担保条件的标准抵押贷款价格还是出现错位。银行无意在账面上保留最普通的抵押贷款就体现了这一点。富国银行首席执行官斯坦普不久前说,我们不会以这样的利率提供30年期固定利率抵押贷款。

  那凭什么这个风险要纳税人来承担呢?
 
unavail
45岁,加州
评论于:2009-09-18 22:36:52  [评论]
42 states lose jobs in August, up from 29 in July; biggest cuts in Texas, Mich., Ga., Ohio


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Forty-two states lost jobs last month, up from 29 in July, with the biggest net payroll cuts coming in Texas, Michigan, Georgia and Ohio.

The Labor Department also reported Friday that 27 states saw their unemployment rates increase in August, and 14 states and Washington D.C., reported unemployment rates of 10 percent or above.

The report shows jobs remain scarce even as most analysts believe the economy is pulling out of the worst recession since the 1930s. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said earlier this week that the recovery isn't likely to be rapid enough to reduce unemployment for some time.

The jobless rate nationwide is expected to peak above 10 percent next year, from its current 9.7 percent.

"You are seeing the pace of job losses slow a little bit," said Mike Lynch, a regional economist at IHS Global Insight. But states "are not out of the woods yet."

The United States lost 216,000 jobs in August, the department said earlier this month, down from 276,000 in July. Employers have eliminated 6.9 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007.

Texas lost 62,200 jobs as its unemployment rate rose to 8 percent in August for the first time in 22 years. The state's leisure, construction and manufacturing industries were hardest hit, losing 35,500 jobs.

Michigan saw 42,900 jobs disappear, including 25,000 in manufacturing, as the state continued to suffer along with its struggling auto industry.

Michigan's unemployment rate rose to 15.2 percent, the highest in the nation. When its jobless rate topped 15 percent in June it was the first time any state surpassed that mark since 1984.

Most economists project Michigan's jobless rate will continue to rise. The University of Michigan estimates it will average 15.8 percent in 2010.

Nevada has the second-highest rate at 13.2 percent, followed by Rhode Island at 12.8 percent and California and Oregon at 12.2 percent each.

The jobless rates in California, Nevada and Rhode Island were the highest on records dating to 1976. California and Nevada have been slammed by the housing bust, while Rhode Island has lost thousands of manufacturing and government jobs in the past year.

Still, California's net loss of 12,000 jobs was down from 35,000 the previous month. From November 2008 through June, the state lost at least 65,000 jobs each month, said Jerry Nickelsburg, a senior economist with the Anderson Forecast at the University of California, Los Angeles.

Georgia and Ohio reported the third and fourth-highest job losses, respectively, but their unemployment rates both fell as many of the unemployed dropped out of the work force. Once unemployed people stop looking for work -- some, for example, may return to school -- they are no longer included in the jobless rate.

The four states with the largest drops in their unemployment rates -- Indiana, Colorado, Kansas and Virginia -- experienced similar trends: thousands of jobless workers gave up on their searches and left the work force. None of those states actually added any jobs, according to a survey of employers.

Colorado state officials, however, noted that a separate survey of households found the number of residents who said they have jobs increased by 4,900 to 2.49 million.

"This improvement is encouraging news," said Donald Mares, executive director of Colorado's Department of Labor and Employment. While "some ups and downs" are likely over the next several months, "employment appears to be stabilizing," he said.

Still, only eight states added jobs in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to employer surveys used by the U.S. Labor Department. North Carolina added the most, with a gain of 7,000, followed by Montana with 5,100 and West Virginia with 2,800.

The biggest gains in North Carolina and Montana were in government jobs, while West Virginia saw the most improvement in education and health services.

New Jersey added 800 jobs, but its jobless rate jumped to 9.7 percent, the highest in 33 years, from 9.3 percent. The gains there were in transportation and utilities, as well as professional and business services, chiefly because of the hiring of temporary service workers.

"When you see temp firm hirings going up, that's certainly a positive sign," New Jersey Labor Commissioner David J. Socolow said. Companies usually hire temporary workers before they add permanent ones.

North Dakota reported the lowest unemployment rate in August, at 4.3 percent, followed by South Dakota with 4.9 percent and Nebraska at 5 percent.

North Dakota has benefited from a healthy oil sector, and all three states are helped by relatively strong agriculture economies.

Associated Press Writers Beth DeFalco in Trenton, N.J., and Juliet Williams in Sacramento, Calif., contributed to this report.

 
unavail
45岁,加州
评论于:2009-09-18 20:07:00  [评论]
经济不景气美国人"居家娱乐" 做爱多引爆婴儿潮



  经济不景气,出门就是多花钱;在家娱乐的风潮悄然兴起。现在美国还出现一波婴儿潮。原来许多大人在家时间变多了,有充分的时间“做爱做的事”,连带出现“增产”效应。

  据台湾东森新闻网17日报道,医生乔瑟林说,与其花钱在其它娱乐,人们宁愿选择待在家自娱自乐,结果带来婴儿潮。美国以前遭遇严重风灾时,也曾出现这种现象。

  已身怀六甲的美国记者珍妮弗.史黛西说:“妇幼中心的医生发现,孕妇有稳定增加趋势,在经济衰退中像我们这样(怀孕)的人很多。”另外,佛罗里达州妇女莱拉两个月前升格为妈妈,她说:“小孩就是待在家的结果。”莱拉向记者说:“是的,因为我们手头上有更多的时间,就是这样发生的,它算是个惊喜。”

  不过,不景气不见得一定有利于爱的火花。有些人因囊中羞涩,突然取消约会的也不少。专家也观察到,怀孕的人会选择比较便宜的生产方式,能省则省。
 
unavail
45岁,加州
评论于:2009-09-17 23:37:39  [评论]
担心中国人不再买美国鸡爪 美国家禽业大声叫苦

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美国禽类出口到中国市场利润之高令人瞠目。


  香港9月17日电(记者 岑岚编译报道)因应美国总统奥巴马对中国轮胎加征关税,中国商务部周二宣布,对美国部分汽车、肉鸡产品启动反倾销和反补贴立案审查程序,话音未落,美国家禽业者已经开始大声叫苦,担心贸易战一旦爆发,将失去中国这个美国家禽业最大的出口市场,特别是在当下经济不景气下,美国国内市场疲弱,利润丰厚的中国市场变得更加重要。 

  周三,纽约时报一篇题为“美味凤爪或许可以撤销贸易战”的报导,饶有趣味,亦备受关注。报导说,虽然中国威胁停止美国鸡肉产品进口,但是美国家禽业者至少还有一个理由认为这仅仅是“虚张声势的威胁”,原因无他——中国消费者怎能舍得割爱美国美味凤爪呢?! 

  报导还引述一位家禽业经济学者的话,表示美国出产中国消费者非常喜欢的特大而美味的凤爪,所以中国不会当真关上市场大门。 

  是否一厢情愿,见仁见智。 

  可以肯定的是,美国家禽业者非常担心失去中国这个近来已经成为美国鸡肉产品出口的最大市场,而且随着中国经济发展人民富裕,这个市场还在快速扩大。还好,到目前为止,中国鸡翼和鸡爪进口商一直从美国供应商进货。一位密西西比家禽农场的财务主管表示,“中国客户要我们继续包装发货,这令我们对熬过这次(贸易战)有那么一点乐观。” 

  一旦中美贸易战爆发,美国家禽业的损失不可谓不大。目前,禽类饲料价格上涨,受经济萧条影响,美国国内餐厅购入的禽类产品数量下降,在此情况下,中国市场愈发重要。去年,美国向中国出口价值43.4亿美元的禽类产品,其中8.54亿美元是鸡肉产品,虽然仅占美国禽类业全部收入的2%,但却出口到中国市场利润之高令人瞠目。 

  美国禽类专家说,美国卖到中国的大约有一半的鸡块产品是鸡翼和鸡爪,它们在美国只卖到几个美分一磅,(美国人偏好吃白鸡肉),而卖到中国的价格是60-80美分一磅,这个价格在全球其他市场无出其右。 

  报导还提及,尽管中国消费者喜欢美国鸡肉产品,自从2004年以来,中美禽类贸易一直存在很多问题,当时由于禽流感爆发,两国互相禁止对方禽类产品。之后,中国很快撤销禁令,但美国却因中国鸡肉安全问题而没有开放市场。至2006年,美国农业部部份撤销禁令,条件是中国要先从美国或加拿大进口鸡肉产品。但美国国会又加了一个条款实际上禁止禁止进口中国鸡肉产品,藉食品安全卫生问题。 

  报导引述一位美国禽类业者的话说,中国看来在今年七月份就准备停止从美国进口鸡肉产品,因为进口批文发得慢了下来,但之后销量有恢复正常水平。为缓和气氛,美国禽类业者一直表明他们与国会的进口禁令没有任何瓜葛,他们也不惧与中国鸡肉罐头、冻鸡产品竞争。 

  两周前,美国禽蛋出口协会的主席曾写信美国贸易代表,提醒对中国轮胎的行动会导致中国报复“对某些行业,有无中国市场的差别在于:获利还是可能破产。” 

  当下,贸易大战一触即发。 

  华盛顿的一位贸易专家表示,“假如我们跟中国人玩一场鸡游戏,我们肯定是大输家。”

 
unavail
45岁,加州
评论于:2009-09-17 09:33:55  [评论]
全球财富一年缩水12兆北美最惨 百万富豪少200万

9月17日电 金融风暴发生迄今一年,全球财富出现2001年网络泡沫以来首度缩水现象,整体资产规模从104.7兆美元滑落到92.4兆美元,缩水幅度11.7%。

  据台湾《中国时报》报道,各国富豪财富明显缩水,根据波士顿顾问公司(BCG)统计,去年一年全球百万富豪人数减少200万人,北美地区净资产规模缩水21.8%最为严重,拉丁美洲因为原物料需求支撑,财富规模逆势成长3%。

  BCG合伙人库马表示,全球资产管理业过去几年平步青云,基金规模随着股市上涨水涨船高,但金融风暴让业者从云端跌落谷底,BCG预估未来4年业者资产规模仅能维持3.8%的成长,到2013年才会回到2007年底的水平。

  BCG针对全球主要国家境内注册共同基金、私募基金进行统计,发现北美地区去年基金净值大幅下滑21.8%,整体金额降为29.3兆元;欧洲地区基金规模也缩水5.8%,但仍有32.7兆美元。

  全球百万富豪人数去年有1100万,今年掉到900万人。美国仍是全球最富裕国家,总资产规模27.1兆美元,百万美元以上富豪近400万人。日本总资产13.5兆美元居次,百万富豪人数超过100万人。

  世界各国的税收减少,境外金融中心成为查税重点,资产规模去年底掉到6.7兆美元,比前年少6000亿美元,占比例最高的瑞士达28%,英国境外属地占23%居次;新加坡与香港靠地利之便,境外资产管理业务也大幅成长。
 
unavail
45岁,加州
评论于:2009-09-16 10:26:43  [评论]
雷曼兄弟破产秘闻 只因股神巴菲特不会用手机?

据《华尔街日报》网站报道,在雷曼兄弟倒闭一周年之际,《时代》杂志(Time)记者图穆蒂(Karen Tumulty)援引消息称,巴菲特(Warren Buffett)手机中一个被遗忘数月的语音邮件或许能够拯救雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)。

  巴菲特(Warren Buffett)手机中一个被遗忘数月的语音邮件能够拯救雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)?  

  这是《时代》杂志(Time)记者图穆蒂(Karen Tumulty)所叙述的故事,消息来自于巴菲特和他的多年好友、《财富》(Fortune)杂志资深编辑卢米斯(Carol Loomis)共同参加的一次会议。  

  可以想像,整整一年之前的那个疯狂周末,金融世界陷入崩溃,巴菲特接到了大量的求助电话。美国国际集团(AIG)急切地想筹集180亿美元资金,恳求巴菲特伸出援助之手。巴菲特对他们说,别在我身上浪费时间,我不能为你们做任何事。



华尔街日报网站报道截屏

  周六傍晚6时左右,当巴菲特准备出门参加加拿大埃德蒙顿的一个社交活动时,他接到了巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)主管戴蒙德(Bob Diamond)的电话。戴蒙德正打算收购雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers),将雷曼从破产边缘拉回来,但他在英国政府那里遇到了困难。因此,戴蒙德想出了另外一个计划,希望巴菲特能提供担保,以便推动交易顺利进行。巴菲特认为,这个交易计划听起来过于复杂,他很难通过一个简短电话搞清楚。因此巴菲特让戴蒙德把具体交易计划通过传真发给他。但当巴菲特午夜时分回到酒店房间的时候,他惊讶地发现什么也没收到。接下来,雷曼兄弟崩溃了,全球金融体系数天之内也陷入了一场全面的危机。  

  时间过去了10个月。有一天,巴菲特问女儿苏珊(Susan)自己手机屏幕上的一个小图标代表了什么:你知道这是什么意思吗?他承认自己从未真正了解自己手机的基本功能。结果,这正是那天晚上巴菲特一直等待的来自戴蒙德的语音邮件。(这引发了另一个问题:戴蒙德为什么不照巴菲特所说的那样使用传真呢?)  

  我们都知道,巴菲特在危机高峰期要答复大量的电话。有时候,他也会同意帮助电话另一端陷入恐慌的金融家,但总是会要求高额的回报。在去年秋天金融危机最严重的时候,巴菲特向高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group)注资50亿美元,得到了股息率10%的累积优先股。两周之后,巴菲特还获得了通用电气(GE)的永久优先股和认股权证。

 
unavail
45岁,加州
评论于:2009-09-16 10:25:17  [评论]
美国金融危机一周年 贪婪的华尔街变得更残忍

美国投资银行雷曼兄弟去年9月宣告破产那天,整个纽约华尔街都笼罩在一片恐怖之中。

雷曼兄弟破产一周年:“高风险高收益”抬头。  

  美国投资银行雷曼兄弟去年9月宣告破产那天,整个纽约华尔街都笼罩在一片恐怖之中。多数人认为,剩余的金融机构也将纷纷关门倒闭,或要进行大刀阔斧的结构调整。与此同时,引领曼哈顿奢侈文化的顶级金融家年薪数百万至数千万美元的时代已落幕。但是,此后一年里,华尔街大把赚钱大把挥霍的模式并没有根本改变,其收益模式和去年秋天导致金融系统陷入瘫痪时并没有两样。《纽约时报》甚至用“华尔街还活着”形容了这种气氛。  

  朝鲜日报报道,表面上看,当然还是有些“变化”。比如,大银行被市场淘汰,数万个工作岗位被蒸发。据穆迪经济网介绍,华尔街去年一年蒸发掉2.98万个工作岗位,这相当于华尔街整个人员的10.5%.此外,一些银行在放款和担保方面也比以前更加严格了。  

  然而,专家们称,此次金融危机的祸根——华尔街为了获取高收益,投机购买高风险证券产品的这一惯例,基本上没有发生任何变化。而只是在金融危机期间,暂时“屏住呼吸”罢了。  

  高盛银行和摩根大通是利用美国政府数百亿美元的金融救助才得以“生还”。目前,他们再次以纳税者的钱作为担保,重新投入到“高风险、高收益” 的投资之中。对于这些存活下来的银行来说,现在的市场因为少了竞争对手,反倒成了扩大市场份额的“契机”。高盛银行、摩根大通、美商富国银行、花旗银行、美国银行(BOA)等5大大型银行,今年第二季度的收益一共是130亿美元。与去年同期相比,超出一倍以上。国际货币基金组织(IMF)首席研究员出身、麻省理工学院教授西蒙-詹森(Simon Johnson)表示:“随着这些大型银行的市场份额增大,且在华盛顿出现‘后勤部队’之后,其势力变得更加强大起来。”  

  曾经受到舆论指责的华尔街高额薪酬,也恢复到了发生金融危机之间的水平。预计,高盛银行的2万名员工今年将平均获得70万美元的年薪。此外,从美国联邦政府获得450亿美元救助金的花旗银行今年有望支付给能源领域的证券经纪人高达1亿美元的报酬。  

  就在美国政府为了阻止金融体系的崩溃大量倾注资金的时候,存活下来的大型银行却只是装模作样地做出了结构调整的假想。去年9月以后这些银行的雇佣率跌幅仅为8%,这足以证明上述说法。  

  倒闭的对冲基金公司也可屈指可数。因此,在金融界甚至出现了意为“道德风险(moral hazard)”的新词“I.B.G.”。这是“I'll be gone”(我要离开)的头一个字母,意思是,用高风险的投资商品吸引投资者后,一旦交易收益变坏,就套取丰厚的报酬以后撤出。乌尼贝尔萨(音)投资公司的投资专家纳西姆-尼克勒斯-塔勒布(音)说:“由于美国政府的大力支援,现在投资者都认为政府可以随时阻止大型银行的崩溃。从这个意义来说,华尔街的金融体系陷入了更加危险的境地。”  

  专家的批评说,尽管奥巴马政府拆巨额“拯救”了金融系统,但却没有进行根本性的改革,只是延长了这些银行的寿命。高风险衍生产品仍然处在政府的控制以外,而各家银行却蜂拥而至 。西蒙-詹森警告说:“如果大型银行继续以纳税人的钱袋为担保进行风险投资,就会重新陷入庞大的恶性资产陷阱。”
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